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"3
Tipsters" Betting System |
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The
following is a ‘system’ I developed & was ‘paper trading’ last
year (2004/2005) to test it’s viabilty, but because it was labour
intensive i.e. a lot of work extracting the data, formatting the data in
EXCEL, market watching and updating results, I gave it a rest for a few
months and have never really picked it back up to continue trading.
The System
….. involves using the daily selections from the following 3 tipsters:
Racing Post - http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/home.sd
Sun - http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2003110000-2001320235,,00.html
Times - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17249-1645959,00.html
To gain access to the Racing Post tips you do have to be registered.
I have my own system for extracting & parsing the data from these 3
sources into an EXCEL database, which I then used to analyse the data.
Basically, what needs to be identified is what horses are tipped by all 3
tipsters. My theory behind this is that individually, each tipster has a
strike rate of about 25%. By combining these 3 tipsters and only betting
on the horses that they all tip, gives ‘quality’. Therefore, you only
bet on races where the horse is tipped by all 3 tipsters. BUT, it
doesn’t stop there. The tipsters strike rates will include Odds-on
favourites, so I avoid these. Also some horses that are tipped by all 3
tipsters, for some reason or other, drift in the market.
Therefore, I only backed a horse to win if: -
1. All 3 tipsters tipped the same horse.
2. SP was greater than or equal to 2.25.
3. SP was less than or equal to 5.00.
4. 5 to 19 incl. runners in a race.
5. Bets were placed before the race started.
Note: SP’s were based on Ladbrokes NOT Betfair, although the bets would
have been placed on Betfair.
Period of Running
I ran this system from 1st September 2004 until 10th June 2005, with a few
gaps in between for holidays and work commitments. There was a big gap of
no trading between 1st February 2005 and 20th April 2005 incl. (I got
tired of running the system!!!)
Stakes
I placed £5 to win bets for SP of 3.00 and above, and £10 to win bets
for SP up to 3.00.
Results
During the Period of Running: -
1. I placed bets on 287 races.
2. There were 111 winners.
3. Strike Rate was 38.6%.
4. Max. Losing Run was 13 races.
5. Of my £100 ‘pot’, only £85 was the max. ever used. (Max. Outlay)
6. Total Staked during Period of Running was £2,010.
7. Total Gross return during Period of Running was £2,477.
8. Net Return was £467.
Whilst the Net return equated to 549% (Net Return [£467]/Max. Outlay [£85]),
you can see that unless I was prepared to increase the stake sizes and
take the plunge and actually trade, the system was a lot of work for a
small monetary return.
I had run a similar system in tandem with the above whereby the Odds range
was narrowed to 2.50 to 3.25 incl., and this system returned a Net profit
of 825% over 128 races with 62 winners (strike rate 48.4%), but was only
found after all the data I was collecting was analized .... the wonders of
hind-sight!!
Basically, the system was 'selective betting', because certain criteria
had to be met before a stake was made.
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